It’s one of those perversions of economics: sometimes the longer-term impact of disasters and wars can be positive for an economy. History is littered with examples, and 2006 might prove to be a classic case.
Here’s the bad news so far. While the economic effects of Hurricane Katrina might seem trivial in comparison to the human misery, they shouldn’t be ignored and right now the winds are having a devastating effect on the US economy. According to the latest data from the US government, US jobless figures have surged by 214,000 thanks to the storm. Meanwhile, confidence has plummeted. Most of the reports currently available refer to a period before Katrina, the most noticeable exception is the Michigan Consumer Sentiments Index, which has fallen to a 13 year low.
And all that is without taking into account the impact of the high price of oil on the economy, caused by storm damage.
Then there’s Rita. At the time of going to press, it looks as if the not so lovely Rita is veering east, and will miss some of the key areas previously thought to be in danger- but then again, with hurricanes nothing is certain.
Some estimates have suggested that the area to be hit by Rita accounts for 27.5% of US refining capacity. There are also fears that pipelines could be affected too.
And while the damage the storm may or may not inflict is conjecture at this stage, there is a lot we do know.
We do know, for example, the largest refinery in the US, Exxon Mobil’s operation in Baytown has been shut down. We do know that almost 92% of all US crude production in the Gulf of Mexico, accounting for almost 10% of US needs, is out of action. We do know that around 66% of natural gas production in the Gulf has been shut down.
And when the crisis is over, workers will not return to their rigs immediately. Some will be attending to their storm damaged homes, and when they do make the trek back to work, they will have to suffer in a seriously disrupted transport system.
But then, once the panic is over, and the re-building is underway, it could be a different story.
There’s a feeling that there’s a panic premium built into the price of oil. When the crisis is over, they say, oil will fall, or at worst stabilise, relieving pressure on inflation, enabling the Fed to end its run of upping the rate of interest, and maybe allowing other central banks, such as our own Bank of England, to do the same.
Then there’s the perverse economic effects of disasters. As storm damaged regions of the US are repaired, the US economy will benefit from an injection of spending. How significant will this be? Capital Economic reckons that 2006 will see a 1.5% surge in US GDP thanks to a fiscal stimulus from reconstruction.
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