We have often argued that in the property market every chain needs a beginning. If that beginning does not come from First Time Buyers, then it must come from Buy to Let investors- or maybe purchasers of second homes.

The recent report from the Halifax that first time buyers are now at their lowest level since 1980, is in our view both highly significant, but not at all surprising, but then, neither is it new. The imminent extinction of that species known as the First Time Buyer has been reported many times in recent years.

The question is this: what do those poor souls who cannot afford to jump on the property ladder do? Do they rent, live with parents, or buy a property in conjunction with friends.

This is the key, because if it’s the former, then demand for properties will remain high. If it’s stay with parents, or mortgage share with friends, then the underlying demand for houses will be less than the expected level. And don’t forget, the big rationale for house prices remaining strong has been demographic: that people need to live somewhere, and houses are in short supply.

Buying to let is not as popular as it was a year or so ago. According to RICS, in a recent survey it carried out, Buy to Let investors are not selling, but they are not buying more either. And when the most optimistic reports are predicting only muted house price rises for the foreseeable future, why should they return?

Put all that together, and we see the property market as no more than a money merry go round. With inflation so low, there’s no underlying reason for this circle to expand outwards.

Meanwhile, Hometrack has issued its latest report into the market. It has prices up 0.2% in January, following December’s 0.1% rise, its first reported rise since June 2000. Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack said: “The pick up in activity levels and prices over the final quarter has created optimism that values will continue to rise slowly over the year ahead…The recovery in London is set to continue and spread to the Southeast over the year.”