February 22, 2008 | posted by Michael Baxter in Immigration |

For some time there has been this assumption that the flow of immigrants coming into the UK will just continue ad infinitum – until the indigenous population of these isles are left as the minority.

Setting aside the argument that, actually, Britain was built on immigration – and that being British is as elusive a concept as King Arthur, this argument has ignored some key points.

For one thing, other European countries are being forced to open up their borders, so all of a sudden the UK is going to find itself in competition with other developed economies in the region for attracting cheap labour.

Secondly, the flow of migrants was always going to slow down and then go into reverse.

Take Poland as an example. Despite the flow of labour away from the country, the economy has been growing at around 5 per cent per year – inevitably it is getting richer. Sure, the gap between the UK and Poland is still vast – but it is closing.

Wages in Poland are increasing at around 10 per cent a year, and wages in the sectors that are seeing a particularly marked exodus of workers have seen even higher increases. In fact the Polish construction sector has seen wages increase by 50 per cent, in some years.

This means that for Polish workers in the UK, their homeland must be looking more and more attractive. Bear in mind, also, that the countries of Eastern Europe have similar long-term demographic problems as the UK – in fact, for many, the birth rate is much lower than in the UK.

According to Capital Economics, the number of Poles registering as finding employment in the UK has fallen from over 45,000 per quarter in the second half of last year to less than 40,000.

It says this may be a one-off, but equally we could be witnessing a new trend.

Maybe, in a few years the migrant flow could become negative, as more Polish workers return to their country of origin than enter the UK.

How will that leave the UK?

Be careful of what you wish for yourself, it may come true – every child knows that from their fairy tales.

Immigration has been a force for low inflation – it has helped create low interest rates.

The single biggest disadvantage of immigration from Eastern Europe to the UK is probably this. It was only ever going to be a temporary phenomenon, and has done no more than paper over the cracks, disguise the deeper problems, that will be revealed in their full horror as Britain is eventually left to the British.