The rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer: but not in the UK – apparently

Well, the rich are getting richer, and the poor are getting poorer, right. Well, in many countries, such as the US, maybe, but not in the UK. Or at least so says a new report from the OECD. According to the OECD, Canada, Finland and Germany have all seen big rises in inequality since the mid 1990s, and the US, Denmark, Sweden and Norway have all seen small increases in inequality. But, the UK, by contrast, has seen a small decrease in inequality over those years.

Are you surprised by that? Well, you will be more surprised to find out the real truth.

The OECD says economic growth of recent decades has benefited the rich more than the poor. In some countries, such as Canada, Finland, Germany, Italy, Norway and the United States, the gap also increased between the rich and the middle-class.

Countries with a wide distribution of income tend to have more widespread income poverty. Also, social mobility is lower in countries with high inequality, such as Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States, and higher in the Nordic countries where income is distributed more evenly.

Why does it matter? OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría said: “Growing inequality is divisive. It polarises societies, it divides regions within countries, and it carves up the world between rich and poor. Greater income inequality stifles upward mobility between generations, making it harder for talented and hard-working people to get the rewards they deserve. Ignoring increasing inequality is not an option.”

The OECD report is interesting, but it misses a key point.

Where economists look at inequality, they look at a measure known as the Gini coefficient. There is, however, a flaw with this measure, which means it has totally failed to illustrate the real trend of the last few years.

In the UK, and indeed much of the world, the real change has been the gap between the super rich – say, those in the top 5 per cent and the rest. Thanks to the benefit system, the gap between the poorest and the average, or even the slightly above average, has closed. This trend was what the OECD data reflected.

But the gap between the super rich and the average has soared. This was now shown up by the data.

And this matters for two reasons. Firstly, the benefit system in the UK provides incentives to the super rich to carry on getting richer, but provides fewer incentives in the middle of the range. There is only marginal incentive for some people to come off benefit, and for others to get promoted. And that is one problem with the current system, and could explain why there are regions in the UK with such massive long-term unemployment. To solve the problem, the government needs to be a lot more creative – maybe even maintain benefit payments for a while when someone who was unemployed over a long term finds work.

But there is another reason why it matters, and this is not commonly understood.

Assume that 5 per cent of the population earn 50 per cent of total earnings – the assumption is not right, but make it for the sake of simplicity. Now assume doctors and dentists require a salary putting them in the top 5 per cent. Then assume doctors and dentists make up 0.1 per cent of the population. The maths is simple, it would be very difficult to see how the country could afford their salaries.

That is the main reason why the government has found it so hard to balance the NHS books. And all those people with toothache, made worse because they couldn’t afford a dentist, should blame the way income is so skewered in the UK to the top 5 per cent.

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Why protectionism and best intentions are the real danger

“It’s complete nonsense. Politicians have completely lost the plot compared with the commercial world,” said Lord Levene, Chairman, Lloyd’s, UK.

He was in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and talking at the latest meeting of the great and the good at the World Economics Forum – that’s the people who organise the annual Davos meeting.

Once again, the spotlight has turned on fears of a backlash against free trade.  

History tells us that human nature can make things worse.    The global economy is hitting crisis.  There are two things we can do.  Baton down the hatches while the banks insist upon much tighter lending criteria and governments resort to protectionism. Or we can go on the attack.

If we go for the former, then things will get a lot worse.

Returning to Lord Levene. He said, “Where has the development come from? In Asia. It’s come from globalization which has been largely developed by the US and Europe working together with countries in this region to build their industries. Now that they see that they are successful, they are saying, ‘We don’t want you to do that.’ ”

“If you go to any Wal-Mart store in the US, about 60 to 80 per cent of everything is made in China. If you cut off all that manufacturing, and say you are going to produce these things domestically, the cost will go up to levels such that the public – which enjoys a high standard of living now – will not be able to buy these things anymore.”

So there’s a danger then of protectionism returning.  Funnily enough, that’s not George Dubya’s way.    His foreign policy in some respects may have him vilified, but in other respects his approach to foreign policy is more likely to promote wealth creation, both in the US and abroad, than other US politicians who have a more conciliatory approach to the Middle East.

A resurgence in protectionism poses the greatest single threat to an economic recovery.

But, then again, it is not the only threat.

There’s a growing gap between the Asian poor and rich.  Simon Hobbs, moderator at the World Economic Forum conference, said that it is not that the poor are not getting richer, they are.  It is just that the rich are getting richer, quicker.

Rajat M. Nag, Managing Director-General, Asian Development Bank agreed, “I think Asia has been a tremendous success story in fighting poverty. In 1990, one in three Asians subsisted on two dollars a day. In 2000, that became one in five.”

“But there is rising inequality and there are two faces in Asia. You go to any Asian city such as Mumbai, Jakarta or Manila and you have the two faces side by side. That is a major risk which can sow the seeds of social dissent and discord. There is this tension that is building up which finds its way into the streets.”

In Asia we are seeing a kind of race.  A race to growth out of poverty.  The race hits its danger spot when some are benefiting, but others not. 

People who criticise globalization only see one side of the coin.  They see the point when this gap between the rich and poor is growing.  They don’t see how even the poor are getting better off.

The challenge lies in creating this extra wealth without creating resentment.

A growing tide of protectionism, sometimes protectionism that hides behind good motives – such as fair trade, is the real threat right now.

PS.   In 1997 economist Paul Krugman said, “A country like Indonesia is still so poor that progress can be measured in terms of how much the average person gets to eat; since 1970, per capita intake has risen from less than 2,100 to more than 2,800 calories a day. A shocking one-third of young children are still malnourished – but in 1975, the fraction was more than half. Similar improvements can be seen throughout the Pacific Rim, and even in places like Bangladesh. These improvements have not taken place because well-meaning people in the West have done anything to help – foreign aid, never large, has lately shrunk to virtually nothing. Nor is it the result of the benign policies of national governments, which are as callous and corrupt as ever. It is the indirect and unintended result of the actions of soulless multinationals and rapacious local entrepreneurs, whose only concern was to take advantage of the profit opportunities offered by cheap labour.”

In a recent article, economist Benjamin Powell said, “In one famous 1993 case US senator Tom Harkin proposed banning imports from countries that employed children in sweatshops. In response a factory in Bangladesh laid off 50,000 children. What was their next best alternative? According to the British charity Oxfam a large number of them became prostitutes.”

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Did Robin Hood have the answer to credit crunch?

Maybe the real factors behind the current economic crisis lie elsewhere.Keynes correctly identified that the poorer you are, then the more you spend on consumption as a proportion of income. He also likened cutting interest rates at a time of high debt, to pushing on string. That’s why he advocated tax cuts, and government handouts geared towards the poor. He was not necessarily being an idealist, more a realist.

But in recent years we have witnessed two phenomena.

Distribution of wealth and income has become more and more uneven. In fact, as the Institute of Fiscal Studies has shown, the change in income distribution has really affected the top and bottom ten per cent of income earners the most, with people in the top ten per cent enjoying much faster income growth than average, and tax payers in the bottom ten per cent much slower growth than average.

Secondly, most of us are not getting any better off. A raft of reports have shown that after deducting items we have no control of (in the short-term) – that’s things such as mortgage/rent payments, cost of travel to work, council tax and utility bills, the average household is worse off now than a couple of years ago.

How can the economy be growing if average households are getting worse off? Partly of course it’s down to the public sector, but also it appears corporate profits have been taking up a bigger share of GDP.

It’s not like this just in the UK. According to the US Economic Policy Institute, since 2003 the median hourly wage in the US has fallen by 1.1 per cent, while production has risen by 5 per cent. At the end of 2006, Future magazine ran an article saying that US corporate profits as a proportion of GDP were at their highest level since 1929.

It seems then that the economic boom of the last few years has disproportionately benefited owners of capital and top income earners, the very people who Keynes said consume the least as a proportion of income.

Maybe, then, we have described the conditions that could lead to a deep recession. Maybe, up to now, recession has been avoided for this reason: Consumers, and especially those who have not enjoyed the full benefits of the economic boom years, have been borrowing, and as a result their disposable income might not have risen so fast, but their spending has.

Consumer borrowing fed banking profits, which in turn fed six- and seven- figure salaries for senior bankers, exaggerating the gap in income between higher earners and the rest.

What’s the answer? Tighter regulation of banks, and action by central banks to pump out more-liquidly fixes the short-term problem only.

The long-term fix relies upon finding a way in which a higher proportion of the populace can benefit from rising productivity.

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