Networks and avoiding financial meltdown

View the businesses of the world as a large set of nodes interconnected by the business they do with other nodes. Some nodes will have tens of connections, some will have hundreds; a few will have millions of connections.

This type of network is often referred to as a scale-free network (cf. Albert-Laszlo Barabasi, Linked (2003)). This kind of network is particularly good at establishing contact between any two nodes with relatively few connections.

In order to visualise this, think of the hub-and-spoke systems that most airlines use. A few airports, like Heathrow in London, Hartsfield-Jackson in Atlanta, or Haneda in Tokyo are hubs and these airports all handle over 50 million passengers per annum. Compare that to say Esbjerg airport in southern Denmark with a throughput of less than 200,000 passengers per annum.

It is relatively easy to get from Esbjerg to Atlanta. You just fly to the nearest hub, London, and then board a direct flight to Atlanta: only two connections. Even if you had to get to another small airport in Georgia, you would only need three connections.

Another clear advantage the scale-free network has, is the resilience to random attacks. If you take out a few random airports in the world, hardly anyone will notice. There are still enough hubs to keep everybody connected. Similarly if a few businesses cease operations, it will not affect the global business network.

However, a scale-free network is very sensitive to a non-random attack. Say you targeted the hubs in such a network. Very soon the effects would be felt, and everyone would lose connectivity.

Banks are such super-nodes. The largest of them all carry millions of connections. If banks were taken out, very soon, the entire network would feel the effect, and the global business network would lose vital connectivity.

Faced with a loss of the most important super-hubs of the global business world, the governments could not just watch the banks drop out of the network. They all acted swiftly and decisively. Fortunately it looks like a financial meltdown was averted.

The government action to support the banks did not attack the root cause of the problem (which is not the topic of this article), so we may still see legion other effects of the underlying source of the banking crisis.

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Bankers and trust

There is no doubt that the Internet and surrounding technologies have had a massive impact on the way businesses around the globe structure their processes and communication.

Processes that took weeks now take days. New businesses have been formed, and old businesses have been altered beyond recognition.

Some of the most profound changes have taken place in the banking sector. Banks no longer just take your deposit, lend you a bit of money, and make living on the spread. They now have to provide a number of other services including pensions, stock broking, insurance and online overview of your personal banking products.

One of the biggest changes brought to the banks by the Internet is disintermediation.  Three decades ago trust was provided by buying a large building with thick walls and pillars in front combined with your “banking adviser”, whom you knew and trusted to give you advice when choosing personal banking products.

Online neither exists. You are a “user”, and your transactions are data-mined to lower the cost and to provide efficiency over comfort. Your debt is sliced, diced and securitised. There is no link between you as a breathing customer and the efficient transaction driven markets.

A sub-prime borrower even gets told that he is sub-prime, high risk, and self certified. There is no social link, no feeling of letting anyone down when going into arrears. You are actually encouraged to do so if you live in the right post code and display “attractive” socio-economic demographics.

The message was: it is easy to make and spend money. Just borrow 100%, buy a property and start spending. Value is unlocked automatically; you can swipe your credit card until the magnetic stripe glows. You can always consolidate your debt if you can’t make the minimum payment.

Yet we wonder where this crisis came from …

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Rest is a weapon

Those of you that have eyed through Ludlum’s Bourne rather than opting for the big screen option will be well familiar with the phrase “rest is a weapon”. In the books Robert Ludlum has Jason Bourne re-iterate the importance of rest time and time again. But we all know how important it is to pace our efforts, even if we are not battling global corporate and political corruption.

Personally, I was reminded of it today on the cross trainer in my local gym. It was Monday morning and I had too much Pouilly Fumé during the weekend. After 20 minutes I couldn’t keep up my usual pace and had to slow down for a few minutes. The hormonally controlled network connecting my muscles to my cardiovascular system managed this brief slowdown seamlessly and my overall performance was only mildly affected.

Our economy is interconnected by a complicated network system, just like our body. The economic system is of course not hormonal, but more or less as fast and responsive as if it were. When the economy is running at too high a pace, networked messengers will kick in to slow it down.

If we allow the pacing to take place, it might not affect the overall performance other than mildly. However, if we inject hormones, i.e. force tax payers to keep the pace (known as an increase in public spending), we run the risk of damaging parts of the system.

The balance is delicate. Sometimes injection of stimulants can boost short term performance without lasting negative effects, other times not.

As errors can be made, we need to consider how we exercise caution. Perhaps this is a question to ask: Do we want to hit a slowdown with steroids, or do we want to make sure that we preserve a long term healthy system?

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