The Curse of Rising House Prices

Why is it that when fuel or food prices go up, the media is quick to react with cries of profiteering or worse? On the other hand, rising house prices are greeted with enthusiasm by just about everyone who isn’t trying to buy a house.House prices are unique in that they defy the normal rules of supply and demand. For every other product in daily life, when prices rise, demand falls. Not with houses. When prices rise, demand increases, all other things remaining equal. The reason for this is that people fear that unless they can get on the property ladder as quickly as possible, prices will continue rising and they will be excluded from owning a home, possibly for ever.

While potential buyers struggle to get into the market, homeowners are the beneficiaries of rising house prices. As prices rise, so they believe does their wealth. This encourages them to borrow and spend more, not only giving work directly to an army of loan and mortgage providers, but when this money spills over into the wider economy, it becomes an important component in the level of consumer spending that has kept the economy buoyant for the past decade. 

But at what a cost!

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House prices crash? More like a death slide

There has been a lot of talk over the past couple of months about house prices and whether there is going to be a house price crash.   The Halifax House Price Index provides one of the best sets of data to show what actually happened the last time we had problems in the market, which could serve as a good pointer to what we could see happening over the next few years.

Halifax house prices

(SOURCE: Halifax house price index.  Chart shows the house price as a percentage of its previous highest ever price) 

Often things happen to spur a change in a market, and usually these come completely out of left field.  In the late 80s it was the removal of double MIRAS relief, after which house prices began to fall long before the exit from the ERM and interest rates going up to 15% overnight.  Today the left field ball is the credit crunch and affordability.

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