There’s more to come…..

If you thought the sub prime mortgage crisis would blow over soon, think again.

We are in for unremittingly bad news between now and June 2008, according to Ken Murray, manager of the Blue Planet Worldwide Financials Investment Trust.

As an ex-banker and a highly successful fund manager, Murray knows a thing or two about banks the world over.

Firstly, he points out that 9 per cent of US mortgage holders are on adjustable rate mortgages which are due to be re-set between now and June 2008. That represents an awful lot of households which are going to find themselves sorely pressed on the financial front, with all that this implies for retail consumption in the US.

Secondly, figures released yesterday show that US house prices fell 3.2 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2007, triggering fear of more foreclosures. The toxic combination of falling house prices, tighter credit conditions and high volumes of unsold property already, can only lead to further downward pressure on house prices. Small wonder, then, that US house builder stocks have fallen 65 per cent from their peak.

Meanwhile, institutions with heavy exposure to sub prime loans, such as Barclays Capital and Lehman Brothers, have been forced to put up their hands to the problems they are experiencing due to sub prime losses and the liquidity squeeze.

As Murray says:“It’s going to get sharply worse, before it gets better. Very few banks have been open about their exposure to sub prime assets, but gradually it’s going to come out. It’s scary just how much [mortgage debt] is off balance sheet.”

And if you thought these problems were limited to the US housing market and investment banks, think again. Murray warns that the billions of pounds invested in retail corporate bond funds could be at risk.

“Investors should really be looking at what’s in these funds and unless they are invested in gilts and other Government securities, they should be thinking of selling or switching elsewhere.

“Many corporate bond fund managers have invested in high yielding asset backed securities to boost returns, but some of the banks are defaulting. The same applies to some money market funds which invested in commercial paper.”

So there you have it. According to Murray, this is the worst banking crisis he has ever seen and global stock markets will fall by another 20 per cent from current levels. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

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Enter at your peril…

Where the current sub prime crisis will end, is anybody’s guess.

These ‘liar loans,’ as they are known in the US, were dished out to all and sundry, at a time of historically low interest rates and on an adjustable rate basis, to people with poor credit records, and little or no income.

The brokers who sold these dodgy loans were incentivised by commission, while the banks had little interest in the risk sub prime homeowners posed of defaulting because they knew the loans would be parcelled up, sliced and diced, and doled out to anyone who was foolish enough to buy them.

Now that the chickens are coming home to roost, it seems that some of the banks and hedge funds who bought these asset backed securities, or collateralised debt obligations as they are known, had little idea of the creditworthiness of the underlying loans they were buying.

Otherwise, we wouldn’t be seeing banks and hedge funds in distress or near collapse. So the whole of the banking system is in a state of near paralysis because nobody knows where the sub prime bodies lie buried and, until we do, banks are looking suspiciously at each other and pointing the finger of blame at everyone else.

But as the experts never cease to tell us, it’s no good panicking now. If you wanted to liquidate your share portfolio, the time to do that was several months ago before the depth of the sub prime crisis became apparent.

For private investors who have a ‘buy and hold’ portfolio, it is probably best to sit tight and wait for the storm to blow over (although be prepared for a long one).

Professional investors may well find buying opportunities, but you need to be brave, highly knowledgeable or foolhardy to buy in these markets, as each day unearths new horrors.

While the Federal Reserve’s reduction in the discount rate last week restored a little temporary calm, equity and credit markets remain tense. In Europe the exposure of the German banks to the turmoil in the sub prime sector is particularly worrying. Are any nasty surprises lurking within UK banks, everyone is asking?

Banking expert, Ken Murray, who manages the Blue Planet Worldwide Financial’s Investment Trust, told me last week that two UK banks could be facing serious problems. Of course, he declined to name names for fear of starting a run on these banks.

But he made the point that many investors, who should have known better, did not understand the nature of some of the new-fangled products which investment banks have been peddling in recent years.

His words reminded me of the oft repeated, but little heeded, warning that “if you don’t understand an investment, leave well alone.“ The events of the last few weeks bear this out all too painfully. And that, dear reader, I am sure you will agree, is a lesson to us all.

Use our: Banking centre | Investment centre

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Banks in the dock….. again!

First it was poor quality payment protection insurance policies, then it was penalty charges on current accounts and most recently unfair mortgage exit fees.

Now the banks are in the dock again because they say they won’t be able to meet the November deadline for introducing faster payment for money transfers made over the phone and the internet within the UK banking system.

Such transfers currently take three working days to reach the destination account, the same time it takes for cheques, even though you, I, and the banks all know that this is a lot of nonsense and the money is transferred within hours.

It’s just that the paying banks like to hold onto our money that bit longer, earning themselves a tidy sum, £30m a year to be precise, in the extra two to three days’ interest.

The Association of Payment Clearing Services (APACS) claims that the enormity of the project means that the banks cannot not meet the original deadline of November this year and that it is more important that they get the system right than that they meet a ‘self imposed deadline.’

That’s all fine and dandy but the banks came under fire from the Office of Fair Trading over this issue two years ago, having been a bugbear with customers for far longer.

Other countries, like Sweden have had near-instantaneous money transfers between Swedish banks for years, so it beats me why the UK banking system needs so long to introduce this much needed reform.

That said, the good news is that changes to the cheque clearing process are to go ahead as planned from November. Currently, a cheque can be rejected by a bank, days or even months, after it has officially been cleared.

From November, however, banks and building societies will be obliged to guarantee final cheque clearance after six days, unless fraud is suspected. Currently, some banks and building societies take 10 days to clear a cheque and even then customer cannot be sure that the money is theirs.

To read more on this visit

http://www.apacs.org.uk/<a href=”http//www.oft.gov.uk/news/press/2007/121-07

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Time to reclaim your lost lost assets

What a feckless lot we Brits are. Is there any other nation on earth that could just ‘forget’ about £15.3bn of theirown money?

This is the estimated total value of assets lying unclaimed in pensions, life policies, endowments, shares and dividends, National Savings, various lotteries, dormant bank and building society accounts, according to the Unclaimed Assets Register.

The reasons why people loose touch with their own money are clear. On average we move home every seven years, but are extremely bad at informing financial institutions and former pension schemes, of changes of name and address.

When we go abroad for a few years we also tend to forget about accounts or even worse, lots of us hold secret accounts that we don’t tell our partners and spouses about, which means they can go undetected by our executors when we die.

But the banks and building societies are now under pressure from the government to redouble their efforts to re-unite us with forgotten accounts, but I wouldn’t hold your breath. Last year, HSBC admitted that the value of forgotten accounts had boosted its profits, so it is unlikely to be in a hurry to release this money.

That said, the British Bankers’ Association, the Building Societies Association and National Savings all carry details of how to trace lost accounts on their websites.

Another call to action could be Gordon Brown’s avowed intention to introduce legislation in the next session of Parliament which would force banks and building societies to hand over unclaimed assets to a charitable foundation which he wants to benefit urban youth projects.

Of course, you will still be able to claim your money even after this cut off point.. Even so, it’s a useful wake-up call to get your affairs in order, or those of deceased relatives.

You could even use it as an excuse to confront your spouse or partner about any secret accounts you think they hold. In the meantime, here are some useful links to get started…..

Bank accounts:
http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=144
Building societies:
http://www.bsa.org.uk/consumer/factsheets/100948.htm
http://www.bsa.org.uk/dormant.htm
National Savings:
http://www.nsandi.com/help/tracing_service.jsp
Endowments, insurance policies, shares and dividends, unit trustss, company and personal pensions:
http://www.uar.co.uk/next.htm
Company pensions:
http://www.thepensionservice.gov.uk

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