Last throw of the dice

Am I alone in thinking that things are getting really nasty out there?

News that Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s are revising the credit ratings of bond insurers in the US is seriously worrying. If they are downgraded, the money market funds run by banks, insurers and pension funds will all be hit.

Many of these money market funds, which ordinary investors regard as ‘safe as houses,’ can only hold AAA grade bonds and will be forced sellers of these bonds into what is an already weak market.

As Ken Murray, the fund manager of the Blue Planet Worldwide Financials investment trust says: “The banking sector is nearly melting down. Freddie Mac has reported losses, house builders are in trouble, sub prime mortgage lenders are going bust and a number of European banks are in serious trouble,” he says.

Yet the equity markets are holding up remarkably well. It just goes to show, before every market collapse there’s a euphoric rise and you can never under estimate the stupidity of investors. We saw this before the dotcom crash, and it looks the same now.

With the hunt on for which European banks are in trouble, Murray reckons that investors should avoid Barclays and UBS. “The Euro Stoxx 50 has got least 20 per cent to fall from here,” he warns.

So there you have it. If this isn’t cause for alarm, I don’t what is.

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Another day, another pensions protest

Those who lost their company pensions in the final salary scheme collapses of the past decade will be gathering in Whitehall this week, in yet another bid to shame the Government into giving them the compensation they rightfully deserve.

The near-instant bail out of the Northern Rock savers has only compounded the 125,000 pension victims’ sense of injustice. If the Northern Rock investors can be indemnified 100 per cent by the Government on their savings, why not those who have lost their pensions through no fault of their own?

As Ros Altmann, the pensions expert, says: “Nobody in Government recommended that people save in Northern Rock, but they have been bailed out in full, whereas the pensions victims, who were encouraged to save via company pensions by various Government bodies, are being short changed.

With only £20m required to give the pensioners the same compensation as those in the Pension Protection Fund, it is difficult to see what ministers are quibbling about.

The pensioners have certainly got their timing right. Their vigil outside Downing Street on the night of 20 November coincides with the Government’s push to gain cross-party consensus on personal accounts – the national pension scheme due to come into force in 2012.

Even if cross-party consensus is achieved on personal accounts, this will not necessarily make the new pension system a roaring success. For that we need far greater consumer confidence in pensions. Perhaps Gordon Brown and Alistiar Darling would like to start by righting this long-running wrong.

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Politicians must put pragmatism before partisan politics if personal accounts are to succeed

News that the political consensus around personal accounts is unravelling is cause for concern for anyone who cares about pensions.

After years of debate and reports as to how the UK pension system could best be reformed, the advent of auto-enrolled personal accounts for low to medium earners in 2012 was much to be welcomed

But now the Tories, led by Shadow Pensions Minister, Chris Grayling, are attacking the new scheme for its incompatibility with means-tested benefits, saying that personal accounts should not be unleashed on an unsuspecting public.

He has a point. On the Government’s own estimates 600,000 individuals, mainly low paid workers, could find themselves worse off with personal accounts than if they had saved nothing. Personal accounts might simply serve to reduce what these people would have received from means-tested benefits.

But predicting who might, or might not, lose out in the future is a near impossible feat because of numerous unknowns such as future salary inflation, demographic changes, longevity and the social and pensions policies of future governments

For instance, who knows what type of social security system, if any, we will have in this country in 40 years’ time.

We already have an ageing population, rapidly increasing longevity and political parties of all hues generally favouring individuals coming off state benefits where possible, with the notable exception of our current Prime Minister who remains firmly wedded to the means-tested pension credit which is causing so many problems.

So for the Tories to object personal accounts solely because of the possibility that in 40 years’ time, some individuals might possibly be worse off because of the availability of better state benefits, seems a tad extreme.

What Mr Grayling, and all others who are concerned about the unintended consequences of personal accounts should do is to lobby for amendments to the Pensions Bill which would allow people with modest sums invested in personal accounts to either have their fund paid back to them or to have this money disregarded for means-tested benefit purposes.

But as with everything to do with pensions, promises made today cannot be guaranteed to be kept by future Governments in 30 or 40 years’ time.

Unless, of course, today’s political parties commit to a long term consensus on pensions, a commitment which would have to be respected by future generations of politicians, as happened in Australia when it introduced its own national pension fund.

A bi-partisan and pragmatic approach is the only way forward. Otherwise, personal accounts will end up dead in the water.

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